Politics: Not Whistling Dixie
Hosni Mubarak offered insightful comments yesterday, to which we should all pay close attention. Because Mubarak isn't just some obstinate head of state in Egypt. Mubarak is our best nominally democratic ally in a Muslim nation for about a thousand miles in any direction. And even though the elections don't mean much in Egypt, they haven't been meaning much here, either.
Anyhow, as has been written elsewhere, Mubarak is a bird on a wire. He relies on the United States for about $2 billion in annual aid (and, in the interests of full disclosure, I rely on some of that because my wife works on USAID-funded projects in Egypt), but he must also avoid being seen as a lapdog to U.S. interests (advice Tony Blair, for instance, has ignored), or the people who have attempted to assassinate Mubarak eight or nine times will keep trying until they succeed.
So when Mubarak says he's concerned that 100 Osama bin Ladens will be born from our attack on Iraq, he's not whistling Dixie, and he's certainly not just discussing the assured rise in babies being named Osama and Saddam across the Arab and Muslim world. He's talking about how his country, and most importantly our country, will be targets of this new generation of militants dedicated to combatting the United States and its allies. These 100 new Osama bin Ladens (and 1000s of Mohammed Attas, FYI) are going to be a threat to the United States for the obvious reaons of buildings and airplanes and bus-bombs and whatnot. But think of these figures as the lead dominoes.
These lead dominoes are going to start falling, and taking with them large targets. American targets, and friends of American targets, like Mr. Mubarak and his Egyptian government. Remember, ObL's right hand man is no terrorism hanger-on. He's the influential father of the Islamic Brotherhood movement in Egypt. Ayman Zawahiri's organization isn't dead, and Egypt isn't exactly peaceful and calm. Because of our Egyptian partnerships, our actual security is even more impacted by their own.
Pakistan is obviously the golden goose for anti-western terrorists because it has at least one working nuclear weapon, and it has a documented history of coups and other unilateral power changes. But Egypt is also regarded as one of the most sought-after prizes in the the Middle East. It hasn't oil or much else, but it is the success story of US intervention and military/humanitarian aid. It has a remarkably well-equipped military that has a history of unrest. It has 35% of its population under age 15, and ready to be molded by fiery rhetoric and despicable images on the television of US troops killing Arab civilians in Iraq. And that could be very bad indeed for America in the next five to fifteen years. It is already a safe bet to call Egypt the source of many of the un-controllable actors which could the terrorists of the future. Is there any reason to throw fuel on that fire?
Hosni Mubarak offered insightful comments yesterday, to which we should all pay close attention. Because Mubarak isn't just some obstinate head of state in Egypt. Mubarak is our best nominally democratic ally in a Muslim nation for about a thousand miles in any direction. And even though the elections don't mean much in Egypt, they haven't been meaning much here, either.
Anyhow, as has been written elsewhere, Mubarak is a bird on a wire. He relies on the United States for about $2 billion in annual aid (and, in the interests of full disclosure, I rely on some of that because my wife works on USAID-funded projects in Egypt), but he must also avoid being seen as a lapdog to U.S. interests (advice Tony Blair, for instance, has ignored), or the people who have attempted to assassinate Mubarak eight or nine times will keep trying until they succeed.
So when Mubarak says he's concerned that 100 Osama bin Ladens will be born from our attack on Iraq, he's not whistling Dixie, and he's certainly not just discussing the assured rise in babies being named Osama and Saddam across the Arab and Muslim world. He's talking about how his country, and most importantly our country, will be targets of this new generation of militants dedicated to combatting the United States and its allies. These 100 new Osama bin Ladens (and 1000s of Mohammed Attas, FYI) are going to be a threat to the United States for the obvious reaons of buildings and airplanes and bus-bombs and whatnot. But think of these figures as the lead dominoes.
These lead dominoes are going to start falling, and taking with them large targets. American targets, and friends of American targets, like Mr. Mubarak and his Egyptian government. Remember, ObL's right hand man is no terrorism hanger-on. He's the influential father of the Islamic Brotherhood movement in Egypt. Ayman Zawahiri's organization isn't dead, and Egypt isn't exactly peaceful and calm. Because of our Egyptian partnerships, our actual security is even more impacted by their own.
Pakistan is obviously the golden goose for anti-western terrorists because it has at least one working nuclear weapon, and it has a documented history of coups and other unilateral power changes. But Egypt is also regarded as one of the most sought-after prizes in the the Middle East. It hasn't oil or much else, but it is the success story of US intervention and military/humanitarian aid. It has a remarkably well-equipped military that has a history of unrest. It has 35% of its population under age 15, and ready to be molded by fiery rhetoric and despicable images on the television of US troops killing Arab civilians in Iraq. And that could be very bad indeed for America in the next five to fifteen years. It is already a safe bet to call Egypt the source of many of the un-controllable actors which could the terrorists of the future. Is there any reason to throw fuel on that fire?
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