Politics: Endgame

It looks as if Liberia is going to get a lot uglier real soon. The AP is reporting that the capitol city of Monrovia is on the brink of falling to a renewed rebel barrage of mortar-fire, some of which is falling on the U.S. embassy compound there. There is also news now that 4,500 U.S. marines and sailors are under orders to position themselves closer to Liberia, in the event President Bush decides to send troops in.

I am concerned that the numbers don't match up. The rebel barrage on Monrovia has squeezed an astounding half of the nation's 3 million strong people into the city, creating an instant urban refugee crisis, regardless of who controls the capitol. 10,000 refugees live across the street from the U.S. Embassy in a diplomatic complex. 30,000 people have taken up permanent residence in the football stadium in Monrovia. Those numbers lead a logical person to believe that any U.S. troops visiting Liberia are only there for one reason, pointed out by a Liberian here:

"The coming of additional American troops is important," one man, Moses Smith, 32, said. "But what we need is not those just coming to mind American property, but those who will be deployed on the ground to give us the feeling that peace is really coming."

You hit the nail on the head, there, Moses. A boat with 4,500 American servicemen is coming, and the 2,000 marines might well get off that boat (seamen rarely deploy on land), but they are going to get a couple of key assets out of the country, and then they are going to get themselves the hell out of the country.

Two weeks ago, 2,000 U.S. troops would have affected the dynamic of the seige, potentially spelling the end of Charles Taylor's presidency and creating incentive for the rebels to slow their attack. Now it is too late; Monrovia could well be a bloodbath before daybreak.

(Posted at naw)