Politics: Crazy Cali
Some food for thought from California (official motto: national farce) regarding the chances that Gray Davis will survive this recall effort. All the talk about Cruz Bustamente, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Arianna Huffington may lead one to believe that Gray is out of this. Now, I'm not saying I'm a huge fan of Gray Davis, but nothing gets a yellow-dog democrat more riled up than an utterly unjust attack like the one this hapless politician is enduring right now.
So, to be clear, here are some numbers we can think about, Harpers™-style:
While there has not been a statewide special election with such unique circumstances, we can roughly look at the past two elections to see where California stands, turnout-wise. Davis needs 51% opposing the recall, which amounts to about 3.9 million votes if turnout matches the 2002 general election. Considering that this is a special election with a lot of attention but still not the months-long buildup of a regular campaign, there is a good chance that the turnout will be closer to the March primary number, which means Davis' magic number sinks to 2.7 million, roughly. My point is that there is a chance that people will rally to Davis because he is essentially experiencing a coup.
In the meantime, let's get to work drafting an amendment to make it just a little bit harder to throw a duly elected governor out of office every time a millionaire wants to run for office (scroll down for Issa).
Some food for thought from California (official motto: national farce) regarding the chances that Gray Davis will survive this recall effort. All the talk about Cruz Bustamente, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Arianna Huffington may lead one to believe that Gray is out of this. Now, I'm not saying I'm a huge fan of Gray Davis, but nothing gets a yellow-dog democrat more riled up than an utterly unjust attack like the one this hapless politician is enduring right now.
So, to be clear, here are some numbers we can think about, Harpers™-style:
Number of eligible voters in the State of California: 21,466,274
Number of registered voters in the State of California: 15,303,469
Number of registered voters who participated in the 2002 general election in California: 7,738,821
Number of registered voters who participated in the 2002 primary election in California: 5,286,204
Numbers courtesy California Secretary of State.
While there has not been a statewide special election with such unique circumstances, we can roughly look at the past two elections to see where California stands, turnout-wise. Davis needs 51% opposing the recall, which amounts to about 3.9 million votes if turnout matches the 2002 general election. Considering that this is a special election with a lot of attention but still not the months-long buildup of a regular campaign, there is a good chance that the turnout will be closer to the March primary number, which means Davis' magic number sinks to 2.7 million, roughly. My point is that there is a chance that people will rally to Davis because he is essentially experiencing a coup.
In the meantime, let's get to work drafting an amendment to make it just a little bit harder to throw a duly elected governor out of office every time a millionaire wants to run for office (scroll down for Issa).
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